Betting the British
The recent history of this tourney is that guys have a good chance to win their first major here. (In recent years: Curtis, Lawrie, Hamilton, Duval). And this tourney is wide open in that I see a dozen guys at 50-1 or less that could be in the hunt. So I won’t be picking anyone to win it. Rather than buying tickets on the possible winners in this tourney, I’m going to focus on a few guys on some specific matchups I like. I think the value is better this way.
I’m going to focus on four Brits this week. It’s been quite a while since a Euro won the Open and yet there are several Euros who probably will win a major in their lives. These four are all playing well right now and should benefit from considerable home “juice”: Paul Casey, Luke Donald, Darren Clarke and Colin Montgomerie. All these matchups are available at Pinnacle. Other outs might have other matchups involving these players. Note that all of the matchups are on these guys as underdogs or very small favorites. I passed on matchups in which they were favorites with juice over 10%. Like baseball, I think it makes zero sense to bet on big favorites in golf. There’s just no value in it. One bad day (like one bad inning in baseball) can kill a bet on a favorite for whom you’ve paid dearly. Do it regularly and the juice will strangle you.
I’m also going to make a play on Vijay to finish in the top 10. A note about Tiger: He’s rounding into form and could win this tourney. At 5-1, he’s probably somewhat fairly priced. But if he leaves his driver in his bag (or doesn’t even carry one) then one of his advantages is gone. He has plenty of other advantages, of course, but I’d rather not bet on him on a course that doesn’t necessarily enable him to capitalize on all his strengths.
I’m starting off with a total of 20.24 “units” in plays. I may add more during the Tourney.
Paul Casey-103 vs. Garcia, 1st round
3.09 units to win 3
Paul Casey has climbed to second on the European Tour's Order of Merit and has been solid in each of his past six events. Included in that stretch was a victory in the Johnnie Walker Championship at Gleneagles, a week after he tied for 15th in the U.S. Open. He also has had one runner-up finish and a tie for fifth. Two years ago, Casey shot 66 in the first round of the British Open at Royal Troon and faded in the final three rounds, but he said he's a different golfer now. Casey took last week off from competition and worked four days with his swing, including one day at Royal Liverpool. Garcia has been a flop in majors and has seemingly come in unprepared in so many of them. I went against him in the first round of the US Open and will do so again here.
Luke Donald -105 vs. Els, 1st round
3.15 to win 3
Donald +102 vs. Els, for tourney
3 to win 3.06
He may not have the same number of wins behind him as a few others, but on talent, Donald might actually be the “best player to not yet win a major”. In his most recent tilt at Major glory, Donald finished tied for 12th at the US Open at Winged Foot last month. Donald opened that tourney with a 78, but finished with 69, 70 and 72 to finish just four shots back from winner Geoff Ogilvy. No player in the field was better the final 54 holes better than Donald. And Donald is coming off a 66 in the final round that got him a 2nd place finish in the Scottish. Ernie just doesn’t seem to be right yet. These odds are based on Ernie’s pedigree...not on how he’s playing right now.
Darren Clarke +123 vs. Mickelson, 1st round
3 to win 3.69
I love this guy. He’s a bit off-kilter at times, but what’s wrong with a guy with a sense of humor. More to the point, he’s Britain’s most accomplished golfer behind Monty and when he’s on, he is very tough to beat. And he’s been on in several majors, Ryder Cups and the Match Play (which he won a few years back). He WILL win a major. It could be this week. Mickelson is the hottest player in the majors this year and thus, I think he’s a bit over-priced.
Vijay Singh top ten finish +131
2 to win 2.62
The most consistent top finisher in majors other than Tiger. I usually buy a top ten finish for Vijay in a major and I’m rarely disappointed.
Luke Donald Top 14 finish +143
2 to win 2.86
Darren Clarke Top 20 finish +120
2 to win 2.4
Colin Montgomerie Top 20 finish +124
2 to win 2.48
Monty played well in the US Open, has played well lately and is running out of chances to win his Major. I expect him to be in the final 5 groups on Sunday.
The recent history of this tourney is that guys have a good chance to win their first major here. (In recent years: Curtis, Lawrie, Hamilton, Duval). And this tourney is wide open in that I see a dozen guys at 50-1 or less that could be in the hunt. So I won’t be picking anyone to win it. Rather than buying tickets on the possible winners in this tourney, I’m going to focus on a few guys on some specific matchups I like. I think the value is better this way.
I’m going to focus on four Brits this week. It’s been quite a while since a Euro won the Open and yet there are several Euros who probably will win a major in their lives. These four are all playing well right now and should benefit from considerable home “juice”: Paul Casey, Luke Donald, Darren Clarke and Colin Montgomerie. All these matchups are available at Pinnacle. Other outs might have other matchups involving these players. Note that all of the matchups are on these guys as underdogs or very small favorites. I passed on matchups in which they were favorites with juice over 10%. Like baseball, I think it makes zero sense to bet on big favorites in golf. There’s just no value in it. One bad day (like one bad inning in baseball) can kill a bet on a favorite for whom you’ve paid dearly. Do it regularly and the juice will strangle you.
I’m also going to make a play on Vijay to finish in the top 10. A note about Tiger: He’s rounding into form and could win this tourney. At 5-1, he’s probably somewhat fairly priced. But if he leaves his driver in his bag (or doesn’t even carry one) then one of his advantages is gone. He has plenty of other advantages, of course, but I’d rather not bet on him on a course that doesn’t necessarily enable him to capitalize on all his strengths.
I’m starting off with a total of 20.24 “units” in plays. I may add more during the Tourney.
Paul Casey-103 vs. Garcia, 1st round
3.09 units to win 3
Paul Casey has climbed to second on the European Tour's Order of Merit and has been solid in each of his past six events. Included in that stretch was a victory in the Johnnie Walker Championship at Gleneagles, a week after he tied for 15th in the U.S. Open. He also has had one runner-up finish and a tie for fifth. Two years ago, Casey shot 66 in the first round of the British Open at Royal Troon and faded in the final three rounds, but he said he's a different golfer now. Casey took last week off from competition and worked four days with his swing, including one day at Royal Liverpool. Garcia has been a flop in majors and has seemingly come in unprepared in so many of them. I went against him in the first round of the US Open and will do so again here.
Luke Donald -105 vs. Els, 1st round
3.15 to win 3
Donald +102 vs. Els, for tourney
3 to win 3.06
He may not have the same number of wins behind him as a few others, but on talent, Donald might actually be the “best player to not yet win a major”. In his most recent tilt at Major glory, Donald finished tied for 12th at the US Open at Winged Foot last month. Donald opened that tourney with a 78, but finished with 69, 70 and 72 to finish just four shots back from winner Geoff Ogilvy. No player in the field was better the final 54 holes better than Donald. And Donald is coming off a 66 in the final round that got him a 2nd place finish in the Scottish. Ernie just doesn’t seem to be right yet. These odds are based on Ernie’s pedigree...not on how he’s playing right now.
Darren Clarke +123 vs. Mickelson, 1st round
3 to win 3.69
I love this guy. He’s a bit off-kilter at times, but what’s wrong with a guy with a sense of humor. More to the point, he’s Britain’s most accomplished golfer behind Monty and when he’s on, he is very tough to beat. And he’s been on in several majors, Ryder Cups and the Match Play (which he won a few years back). He WILL win a major. It could be this week. Mickelson is the hottest player in the majors this year and thus, I think he’s a bit over-priced.
Vijay Singh top ten finish +131
2 to win 2.62
The most consistent top finisher in majors other than Tiger. I usually buy a top ten finish for Vijay in a major and I’m rarely disappointed.
Luke Donald Top 14 finish +143
2 to win 2.86
Darren Clarke Top 20 finish +120
2 to win 2.4
Colin Montgomerie Top 20 finish +124
2 to win 2.48
Monty played well in the US Open, has played well lately and is running out of chances to win his Major. I expect him to be in the final 5 groups on Sunday.
Individual Matchups (72 holes)
7/20 00:05 AM Jim Furyk vs David Howell
J. Furyk +100 @ oly (-115 @ Pinny) …………………………..4 units
D. Howell -120
7/20 01:05 AM Henrik Stenson vs Nick O’Hern
H. Stenson -110
N. O’Hern -110 @ Oly (-114 @ pinny)…………………………4 units
7/20 02:20 AM Phil Mickelson vs Vijay Singh
Phil Mickelson -115
Vijay Singh -105 @ Oly …………………………………...........3 units
7/20 02:00 AM Ernie Els vs Retief Goosen
E. Els -116 @ Pinny (-135 @ Oly)…………………………….... 2 units
R. Goosen +106
7/20 2:20 AM Darren Clarke vs David Howell
Darren Clarke -110 @ Oly ……………………………………...2 units
David Howell -110
Props:
Top Australian: Robert Allenby +1050 @ Oly (all aussies)………0.25 unit
OR +397 @ pinny (5 aussies)
Furyk to finish in Top 14: Yes + 152 @ pinny………………………….0.25 unit
Singh to finish in Top 10: Yes + 129 @ pinny (+120 @ oly) …….0.5 unit
Monty to finish in Top 20: Yes + 124 @ Pinny…………………………0.25 unit
Allenby to finish in Top 10: Yes + 745 @ oly……………………………0.25 unit
Donald to finish in Top 14: Yes +152 @ pinny………………………….0.25 unit
:toast:
7/20 00:05 AM Jim Furyk vs David Howell
J. Furyk +100 @ oly (-115 @ Pinny) …………………………..4 units
D. Howell -120
7/20 01:05 AM Henrik Stenson vs Nick O’Hern
H. Stenson -110
N. O’Hern -110 @ Oly (-114 @ pinny)…………………………4 units
7/20 02:20 AM Phil Mickelson vs Vijay Singh
Phil Mickelson -115
Vijay Singh -105 @ Oly …………………………………...........3 units
7/20 02:00 AM Ernie Els vs Retief Goosen
E. Els -116 @ Pinny (-135 @ Oly)…………………………….... 2 units
R. Goosen +106
7/20 2:20 AM Darren Clarke vs David Howell
Darren Clarke -110 @ Oly ……………………………………...2 units
David Howell -110
Props:
Top Australian: Robert Allenby +1050 @ Oly (all aussies)………0.25 unit
OR +397 @ pinny (5 aussies)
Furyk to finish in Top 14: Yes + 152 @ pinny………………………….0.25 unit
Singh to finish in Top 10: Yes + 129 @ pinny (+120 @ oly) …….0.5 unit
Monty to finish in Top 20: Yes + 124 @ Pinny…………………………0.25 unit
Allenby to finish in Top 10: Yes + 745 @ oly……………………………0.25 unit
Donald to finish in Top 14: Yes +152 @ pinny………………………….0.25 unit
:toast:
don't count the bulldog out just yet chris Dimarco still has a great chance and he took tiger to the end in the masters a couple of years ago the man can play. but i think that tiger is primed and in good position his tournament to win if he plays as well as he has the first two days but any fading and dimarco or els will pounce on the tiger.
